Dated observation note. Recorded 2026-08-06 (tip ~96,395), from the deployed
Phase 7 API (/v1/metrics/{series}, /v1/certs/census) over the complete
decoded corpus (96,397 canonical certificates, decoder v1).
1. The fork-discontinuity acceptance (roadmap Phase 7, binding): PASSED
Prediction: the new arithmetic accounting must show a clean discontinuity at the rank-penalty activation (height 96,251) of the magnitude OBS-001 measured, or it must not ship. Boundary-local (last/first 100 blocks around 96,251, 7d window):
| Series | Pre | Post | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| rank (mode) | 1024 in 49/100 | 128 in 83/100 | PASS: reproduces OBS-001 (49% / 84%) |
| declared-arithmetic (median) | 4.40e13 MACs | 4.33e12 MACs | PASS: 10× collapse |
| proven-arithmetic (median) | 2.10e6 MACs | 5.24e5 MACs | PASS: 4× clean step (1.05e6 → 5.24e5 across 25-block medians) |
| attestation-ratio (median, per block) | 9.54e-8 | 1.21e-7 | PASS: steps up (m·n shrank) |
The 7d MAC-weighted aggregate ratio is 5.98e-10, far below the per-block
median because Σdeclared is dominated by the largest declared shapes. Exactly
the median-vs-MAC-weighted distinction metrics.md#attestation-ratio requires
quoting explicitly.
2. The MoE window WAS used: hypothesis refuted
moeBlocks = 1,929 over the entire chain. MoE certificates are only
consensus-valid inside the window 71,935–91,630 (19,695 blocks), so ~9.8% of
that window carried a production MoE proof. This refutes the working
hypothesis (roadmap Open questions; echoed in OBS-001) that the MoE
capability went essentially unused. The governance story is therefore
sharper, not weaker: a hard-forked capability with real production usage was
retracted ~44 days later by a softfork that no PIP documents (PCCR-0003).
Errata applied to OBS-001, whose zero-MoE observation was over a post-window sample where zero is consensus-required and supports no usage inference.
3. The chain's most common shape matches the official stack AND a published model
Top declared shape over the whole corpus:
m 32768 · n 57344 · k 8192 · rank 128 · tile 2×64: 15,902 blocks (~16.5%)
- tile 2×64 is the official kernel's exact wgmma fragment (h=2, w=64; the F9 fingerprint), and rank 128 is a compiled official rank;
- (n 57344, k 8192) is Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct-pearl's fused gate/up layer (pearl-notes §mining stack, F4).
So roughly a sixth of the chain is consistent with official-stack mining of a published model. That is the strongest real-inference signal yet, and the n=3 fixture sample (which matched no model) badly under-represented the corpus. Per the roadmap's binding reframing: this is "consistent with the published vLLM-plugin shape signature", not a claim that inference occurred; the discrimination bound is Phase 8's T3 mixture test. Caveat: m = 32,768 exceeds typical vLLM batch bounds (~16k), a Phase 8 question, not a conclusion.
Also new against the fixture-era picture:
- Full-chain rank histogram: 64 → 28,417 · 128 → 46,611 · 256 → 10,863 · 512 → 5,836 · 1024 → 4,668 · 32 → 1 · 0 → 1 (genesis). The early chain mined heavily at rank 64 (an official compiled kernel), and exactly one block used rank 32, the old reference default.
- Per-pool rank crosstab is live for five labeled pools + the unattributed remainder (always shown, never redistributed).
Method / caveats
- All figures from the public API of the deployed release
ba3db02ecb3b-w81398ae; reproducible with two curl commands per table. - Census is whole-window aggregate (REPEATABLE READ snapshot); series carry ≤5,000 newest points per window; boundary-local slices used above.
- Shape-consistency statements are geometry only (T1/T2 screens); no distributional test has run yet (Phase 8.2), and no claim of served inference is made or implied.